By Logan Barclift
The Kuwaiti Emir Sabah Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah, 77, was hospitalized recently, just three months after taking reign following the death of the late Emir Jaber Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah.
In January the late Emir died after a long illness. His cousin and successor Crown Prince Saad Al-Abdullah, who suffers from major health problems, forced him to abdicate to the current Emir.
The prospect of transferring power to Al-Abdullah, who was completely incapable of effectively governing the country, left Kuwaitis anxious about the uncertainty of future leadership. The parliament stepped in and demanded that power be transferred to the next in line, but that person is still of the older generation and is not in good health himself. Therefore, Kuwait will continue to face the same situation of uncertain and stagnant leadership that has hampered it for years. The people of Kuwait are not served well as long as their government is headed by ailing figures that must make sensitive decisions on increasingly difficult challenges.
It is a simple fact of life that as people age, their ability to function is diminished. They may have wisdom that they did not have before, but wisdom is meaningless without the physical and mental capacity essential for an effective leadership. That is especially true when ruling a largely young population in a volatile region. Several Middle Eastern countries have faced the problem of aging leaders and continue to do so. It is time for these countries to shift power from the generation that has ruled for decades to younger leaders that are better capable of leading their nations into the 21st century.
The countries of the region are confronting many problems such as millions of unemployed youths and the rise of radical Islam. The demands for a vibrant economy, and internal security, while simultaneously offering larger share of the pie to the public, necessitate younger and capable leadership. The older rulers are less likely to understand the modern world economy and the need for these counties to create jobs in a highly competitive world. They have not had the education that their sons possess, and are more likely to answer the calls of their people for more political openness with harsh crackdowns.
Saudi Arabia has recently ended a period where the late King Fahd was incapacitated after a stroke in 1995. So for a decade, power devolved from Fahd to the Crown Prince and other senior princes, making the issue of who really holds power somewhat unclear. Now there is King Abdullah, but he also an octogenarian and one of the oldest men in histry to take power.
Right now, only the sons of the Kingdom’s founder, Abdul Aziz Al-Saud, are considered eligible for the throne. As power is transferred between increasingly older and older kings, their reigns will be shorter and a source of constant fighting among them. Princes biding to be the next monarch will create a situation similar to what happen in the Soviet Union in the late 1970s and early1980s that produced stagnant leadership and contributed to the downfall of the country.
With the advance of medical technology we could see these kings stay around well into their nineties and beyond. Currently the youngest son of Abdul Aziz, Murqin, is in his mid-sixties behind a long list of older and ailing brothers who are waiting their turn to the throne.
The answer to this problem that also satisfies the ruling family’s desire to maintain absolute power is to allow the grandsons of Abdul Aziz to step forward and become the rulers. Most of the younger generation have been educated in the West and better understand the problems generated by the modern world. Also moving to the next generation increases the pool of candidates suitable for office, and increasing the possibility of forward-looking leaders.
The older generation could still stay on as respected elders, but real power needs to be in the hands of young and capable leaders. For instance, Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal, the billionaire investor has a great amount of international experience and a reputation for advocating reforms. He would be a much better leader than the old simple-minded cadre of senior princes in control now. Despite claims that that ruling family traditions rely on ability and merit to decide who leads the country, death and age are currently the final arbiters over who will take power and when.
The refusal of the older generation to surrender power to the younger one is an agent of instability. The younger generation, frustrated with the repeated failures of old rulers is likely to forcefully wrestle power away from their fathers and uncles. Case in point is Qatar, where the younger generation in the person of Sheikh Hamad ousted his father, Sheikh Khalifa in a bloodless palace coup. Hamad seized power in 1995 and has been able to rule extremely better than his father, and managed to place Qatar as a major player in the region. The overthrow engendered countercoup supported by the Saudi government to reinstall the old ruler. It is easy to see why the Saudis would think that Hamad set a bad precedent. Those rulers need to learn the lessons of Sheikh Khalifa’s fall from power and allow their sons to step forward sooner for the sake of their country and people. The Qatari coup might have been bloodless, but theirs might not be.
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are leading oil exporters to the world; therefore it is in the interest of the world to ensure their stability. The United States has a critical mission to ensure the long-term stability and progress of the political regimes that provide us with our energy.
If the ruling families of the Middle East are going to continue denying their people the right to choose their government, then they should at least offer up an energetic and capable leadership that is able to run a modern government.
Logan Barclift is a political analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs in Washington DC.
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