May 13, 2025
By Ali AlAhmed*
Washington DC – The visit of Donald Trump’s to Riyadh today, his first foreign trip in the second term, may change many things in the Middle East. For the rulers of Riyadh, however, the first priority is to get Trump’s backing have for their planned domestic nuclear program that includes uranium enrichment on par with Iran and Israel.
Going nuclear has been one of Saudi de facto ruler Mohamed Bin Salman’s most coveted goals. “Saudi Arabia Goes Atomic” is the slogan displayed in English for international officials visiting the Low Power Research Reactor at the King AbdulAziz City for Sciences and Technology in Riyadh to see. MBS has gone further by stating that Saudi Arabia would consider developing nuclear weapons if Iran pursued such a path. Even without Iran militarizing its nuclear program, MBS still wants to enrich uranium for a civilian nuclear program.
What is new is that Saudi leaders have modified their opposition to Iran civilian nuclear program. That came up during the Saudi-Iranian deal brokered by China last year. Riyadh needs energy and nuclear is its best option. Enrichment-capable Iranian civilian program makes it easier for Riyadh to have its own, but at a larger scale.
MBS told visiting Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol in the summer of 2023 that uranium enrichment is necessary before Korea can win a contract to build a nuclear plant, and asked the Koreans to push the US to agree to his condition . To make the point one more time, days ahead of Trump inauguration in January MBS’ older brother and seasoned Minister of Energy AbdulAziz Bin Salman reiterated his government’s plans to enrich and sell uranium.
The Koreans were working with the Biden administration on offering the Saudis what UAE has agreed to, the 123 Agreement for Peaceful Civilian Nuclear Energy Cooperation to get its first nuclear power plant, Barakah.
With Trump in power and a massive carrot of one trillion dollar in Saudi investments in the American market, MBS may just get his wish: a nuclear Saudi Arabia. Trump’s own financial ties with the Saudis and other Gulf Arab rulers have increased exponentially, making it hard if not impossible for him to block a civilian nuclear program regardless of Israeli objections.
It is unlikely that Trump would follow consecutive American administrations that dragged their feet to help Riyadh build a civilian nuclear program. Riyadh ignored the May 2022 warning of Biden’s CIA Director William Burns to MBS against purchasing weapons or acquiring nuclear technology from China. Thanks to Trump’s economic war with China, it is now much more willing to sell nuclear technology than ever.
Just a few weeks ago, China hosted all members of the GCC at the First China-GCC Forum on Peaceful Use of Nuclear Technology in Sichuan and signed a MOU with Saudi Arabia on nuclear safety. In 2022, China opened the Riyadh headquarters for its China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC), a state-owned company in charge of all civilian and military nuclear affairs in China.
The Saudi drive to build a civilian nuclear program has accelerated since MBS takeover in 2017. Since then, Saudi state funded hundreds of students to earn degrees in nuclear physics and related fields from the US, Korean, British, Chinese and Russian universities, among others. The Saudi government also has established support facilities and organizations for nuclear program.
MBS has also strengthened ties with countries that can provide a stable supply of uranium because Saudi Arabia lacks significant uranium reserves. In 2023, MBS’s brother and Minister of Energy AbdulAziz bin Salman met with his Kazakh counterpart and signed agreements in energy generation with Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium.
Just last month, the Saudi government’s nuclear agency, Nuclear and Radiological Commission, issued its first license to build a nuclear power plant in a location known to this writer. Saudi Arabia rescinded its small quantities protocol for countries with little to no nuclear material and facilities. This was the first legal step the Saudis took to declare their intent to handle large quantities of nuclear materials.
Even though Saudi Arabia hosts two monitoring facilities at Haleban, a primary seismic facility and Dharan Al-Janub, it has not signed or ratified the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty.
Driven by his appetite for prestige and national elevation, MBS has revamped the country’s nuclear strategy to include eventually attaining the capability for domestic enrichment and reprocessing of uranium. This strategic shift aims to align with Iran’s nuclear hedging strategy, where the rapid development of a nuclear bomb becomes feasible when needed.
MBS and his team view China, unbound by US-led 123 Agreement, as their best option to attain nuclear capabilities and its most important element, uranium enrichment. Moreover, amid the ongoing conflict with India, Pakistan may find itself unable to resist Saudi request for obtaining nuclear abilities or even a few nuclear heads in exchange of billions.
Like it or not, it seems that Trump is enabling the Saudi plans to build a full-scale nuclear program with Chinese help. A nuclear-capable kingdom will fulfil MBS’ dream of “Great Saudi Arabia” and put him on par with Iran and Israel. Radioactive Saudi Arabia will change the entire region forever.
* This article was written with help from indigenous nuclear experts.
AlAhmed is the Director of the Institute for Gulf Affairs