By Lev Yuriditsky
As the civil war in Libya is coming to an end and the country is paving the way for a new beginning, a new government and new relations with the rest of the world, another one is on a rapid climb towards its climax in Yemen. Unlike the rest of the Middle Eastern countries that experienced popular uprisings, these two nations are the only ones so far that went from peaceful protests and demonstrations to an all-out civil war.
Both countries share many similarities, the most relevant being that they are both countries built on very complex tribal bonds and allegiances, both countries have leaders that ruled for many decades, both hit huge turning points when members of the Leadership’s administration defected to join the opposition on the grounds of sympathy, and both are the only two countries where the opposition is supported by powerful groups who are not only armed, but have the ability to arm the entire opposition. For this reason, the opposition in each country was able to go from victim to empowered revolutionaries.
It is easy for us, here in the U.S. to choose sides with the opposition. The opposition in Libya experience bi-partisan support from the U.S., military support from NATO along with political and economical actions being taken against Gaddafi, which greatly helped the opposition. It’s very easy for us to accept the Media’s reports of an evil, tyrannical Muammar Gaddafi terrorizing and oppressing the innocent of Libya and making their lives miserable and that the uprising is in fact a popular one and not just a fringe movement by an angry minority seeking to overthrow the government.
This resulted in a good vs. bad mentality, and put us in the position of interested spectators rooting for one side. It made it hard for Americans to swallow reading reports of the victorious rebels of Libya (the good) torturing their captors and threatening civilians who were just caught in the middle. We accepted that there was a fight between two sides and that, as is always the case with war, there will be casualties for both sides, so we looked at the casualties as collateral damage and ignored the fact that some of them didn’t want to be there at all.
The fact is that it doesn’t matter if one is justified or not in their goals. In a civil war like that in Libya and especially the one in Yemen both sides, if not willing to compromise or resolve the conflict, are destroying lives and a country. We need to learn from the conflict in Libya and use that experience to solve a major conflict in Yemen.
In Yemen right now, there aren’t two sides, there are many more and the way they interact with each other is just as complicated as it is to run a country with so many different allegiances. The one side that is ignored the most is that of the neutral civilians, those who want to go about in their day-to-day lives and it’s not worth it for them to get involved in armed conflicts.
To simplify things, in Yemen there are those who want for President, Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down from his 33-year rule; then there are those, mostly his sons, nephews and the forces they command, who will do everything in their power to prevent this from happening. When you look closer at the picture, the opposition includes an eclectic mix of groups. You have those who began – and still wish to continue – a peaceful demonstration, but you also have troops of dissident General Ali Mohsen al-Ahmar, who to the chagrin of the peaceful protesters are waging a violent battle with Saleh’s troops, but are claiming that they are neutral and only there to protect the rights of the protesters to demonstrate. You also have the powerful Islamic party, Islah, supported by defecting army soldiers, who are on the side of the opposition, but are currently blocking entry for University students to their classes in an attempt to use them as a political pawn. These University students have already lost one year of studying and are facing another wasted year and it will be hard for them to side with the opposition after the clashes they had with Islah, but they will more than likely remain neutral than support Saleh. In addition to these groups, we also have Al-Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), who have been supporting various opposition groups, such as those affiliated to Sheikh Abdul Majid al-Zindani in Arhab district, who were successful in capturing an army base housing an elite unit north of Yemen’s capital early Monday. These same Tribal fighters were able to down a government jet fighter in Arhab. AQAP has also been fighting government forces and anti-government forces (to make things very complicated) in the south. Believe it or not, this is a simple breakdown of the players in this conflict.
For the past several months, there has been bloodshed and there has been fighting, but nothing near the level of the current situation. Scores of people have been killed and injured by government forces, majority of them being peaceful demonstrators. Rockets and sniper fire was used to push back protesters as they marched towards the President’s palace. The onslaught was declared an act of self-defense by the President’s Republican Guard. The “neutral” forces of General al-Ahmar fired back also in an act of defense of the protesters rights to demonstrate. This has been going on for the entire week since President Saleh returned from Yemen, and there are no signs of slowing down from him.
It is mostly the peaceful protesters being killed as they are targeted by government snipers from rooftops. “I am upset and angry. My friend has been severely injured. I curse Ahmar’s soldiers and I curse the troops of the regime,” said Ahmed Zurqah, a protester. “The demonstrators wanted this revolution to be peaceful, but the soldiers on both sides want this to turn into a civil war.” This is the voice of the opposition and it does not make the same sound as the bullets from the troops that protect them. There are also those who remember a peaceful life of going to work and sending kids to school before the protest and now blame the protest for all the violence. Some of these people say that they can not wait for Saleh’s troops to come and protect them, but as Yemen has almost a gun-per-person ratio, majority of them being Kalashnikov’s, these people will defend their homes and their families when no one else will. While University students were at first the leaders of the demonstrations, they are now distancing themselves from the opposition, at least from many elements of it, namely the ones who are ironically barring them from their classes. It is these unwilling victims of the conflict who are suffering the most.
Both sides are to blame for the violence. Saleh has shown that while he has backed out several times of a GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) brokered deal to resign with immunity and for the government to hold elections within two months; he is still willing to negotiate his departure and a transition and in general hold dialogues with the opposition to discuss a transition based on the constitution. Due to the massive rifts in the opposition, some actually supported talks, while others are stubbornly opposed to it and declared that there will be no discussions until Saleh steps down, thus perpetuating the violence and making it impossible for anyone to agree, even if they have the same mission.
As of today Saleh has authorized Vice President, Abd Rabu Mansur Hadi, to sign the GCC deal, but it is unlikely that this would happen. Some are even opposed to this and refused to give up the fight unless the President himself signs the pact.
This time around, the world has no choice but to apply pressure on Saleh, much like they have on Gaddafi, to step down. Recently, after a committee meeting of the Arab Parliament on Tuesday, the head of the committee has called for the suspension of Yemen from the Arab League. Tawfik Abdallah of the Arab Parliamentarians Political Affairs and National Security Committee said “We call on the Yemeni leadership to respond to the Yemeni people and accept the Gulf States initiative … or we call on the AL to suspend the membership of Yemen in the AL and all its organizations.”
The GCC has on many occasions expressed their disapproval of Saleh’s refusal to step down and now even Iran has joined the voices, with two hundred and twelve Iranian lawmakers calling on the United Nations to send a delegation to Yemen to investigate the situation.
The U.S. is behind and if we really care about humanity, we must also join in with the world to apply pressure on Saleh to step down. We are an influential country and pressure from us will be very impactful. Likely, our businesses that operate in Yemen are part of the reason for our silence on the matter. So far, we have done nothing more than support dialogue and a democratic transition, but we can not allow for a civil war between two well-armed groups in the country with the highest guns-per-capita ratio in the world.
Lev Yuriditsky is adjunct policy analyst at the Institute for Gulf Affairs.
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